When Climate Moves the Farm: From Southern Europe to the North

Photo of a drought-stricken field. The soil is bare and cracked.

Climate change is no longer a distant scenario — it’s already reshaping Europe’s agriculture. A new report from the European Environment Agency (EEA) shows how changing temperatures and rainfall patterns could turn the entire EU agribusiness upside down.

According to the report, southern Europe will lose productivity and land value, while northern and western regions gain longer growing seasons and better conditions for intensive farming. It’s a structural shift with deep economic and political implications.

The EEA calls it a “cascade of impacts”:

  • Farming in Italy, Greece, Spain, and southern France is expected to become less profitable.

  • Farmland values in southern Europe could drop by 60–80% by 2100, with Italy alone facing potential losses between €58 and €120 billion.

  • Meanwhile, land values in western and northern Europe could rise, as new crops and varieties become viable further north.

Extreme weather — droughts, heatwaves, and frost — will change not only yields but also which crops can survive. Vineyards, olives, and livestock are already under pressure.
At the same time, cooler regions such as the Baltics and Scandinavia could see opportunities. “Finland may become the new Spain,” the report notes, as crops like maize and wheat move north.

But adaptation is key.
The EEA warns that, without strong action, EU agricultural income could drop by up to 16% by 2050. It calls on policymakers to make adaptation a top priority — not just in EU frameworks but at the farm level, where decisions on crops, irrigation, and soil management are made.

One proposal: pay farmers for ecosystem services linked to climate adaptation, so those investing in change also share in the benefit.

It’s a stark reminder that when climate shifts, so do land values, supply chains, and investment patterns.
If farmland moves north, capital — and jobs — will move with it.

4 September 2019, by Gerardo Fortuna / EURACTIV.com

Read this article about the report published on 4 September 2019, by Gerardo Fortuna/EURACTIV.com: Climate change could turn the entire EU agribusiness upside down

Cover photo credits: Md. Hasanuzzaman Himel / Unsplash